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The story so far: President Emmanuel Macron has lost his majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament. In the legislative elections, which concluded on June 19, Ensemble, the centrist coalition led by Mr. Macron, could muster only 245 seats in the 577-member assembly. The number needed for an absolute majority is 289. At the same time, NUPES, the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, and the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen made substantial gains, finishing with 131 and 89 seats respectively. The mainstream conservatives, Les Republicains, managed to get 61 seats.
Although the President’s office is the most powerful of political posts in France, with scope to govern by decree, a majority in the National Assembly is still needed for passing new laws or amending the Constitution. In the 2017 legislative elections, Mr. Macron’s party and his allies won an absolute majority of 350 seats, which meant he could push through whatever legislation he wanted in line with his policy goals. But this time, short of the majority needed to control the Assembly, he may be forced to make political compromises in order to cobble up the numbers.
Apart from having a say on key bills, members of the National Assembly, or ‘deputies’, also have the power to pose tough questions to cabinet Ministers, organise hearings, and set up enquiry committees.
The legislative polls are held in two rounds, with one elected deputy for each of the 577 constituencies. The top two candidates with the most votes in the first round face off in the second round to determine the winner. But if a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round — which is rare — then she is declared elected without the need for a second round. This year, the first and second rounds were held on the 12th and 19th of June respectively. After the first round, the centrist Ensemble coalition and the leftwing NUPES were neck-and-neck with around 25% of the votes each, while the National Rally got 19% and Les Republicains, 10%.
Mr. Macron’s pro-business policies, rising inequality, and growing discontent over inflation have been steadily eroding his support base, especially among left-leaning voters. One major factor in his comfortable win in the Presidential elections was the keenly felt political imperative to keep the far-right Marine Le Pen out of the Elysee Palace. It delivered to Macron the votes of the left parties in addition to his own. But this factor was not in play in the legislative elections where the firebrand leftist Mr. Melenchon strung together a robust alliance of all the left and green parties and ensured they were not contesting against each other. As a result, the leftwing coalition increased its presence in the National Assembly from 45 to 131. Another big gainer from the disenchantment with Macron’s policies — especially his forays into pension reform — seems to be the far-right Ms. Le Pen, whose party increased its tally more than ten-fold, from eight to 89.
President Macron’s main Opposition in Parliament would be the leftwing NUPES coalition led by Mr. Melenchon. NUPES, or New Social and Ecological People’s Union, includes communists, socialists, Greens and different shades of leftwing groups that do not necessarily agree on every issue. Mr. Macron, a former investment banker, followed classic neoliberal policies in his first term as President — he lowered corporate tax rates from 33.3% to 25%, ushered in labour reforms that cut employment benefits and enabled easier lay-offs, and did away with the wealth tax. He now wants to raise the retirement age — a move strongly opposed by the working classes and the vast bureaucracy. NUPES, on the other hand, has an agenda focused on social and climate justice. It is calling for the retirement age to be lowered from 62 to 60, the return of the wealth tax, and for the minimum wage to be hiked by 15%. While Mr. Macron already has — in the aftermath of the inflation fuelled by factors related to the Ukraine war — capped fuel and gas prices, NUPES wants a cap on the prices of all essentials. With regard to the EU, Mr. Melenchon has been speaking of France unilaterally disregarding EU treaties that interfere with its national policies, but he doesn’t enjoy the support of all his coalition partners on this issue.
Political observers speculate that he might try to regain control of the Assembly by seeking an alliance with a broadly like-minded rival, such as Les Republicains, whose 61 seats would be enough to secure a majority. The other alternative would be to negotiate and build consensus with select parties on specific issues in order to get key legislation passed.
It is unlikely to matter in terms of France’s foreign policy.
However, the indirect political pressure on the Macron government on account of the war’s impact on the domestic economy, especially inflation, is bound to go up with a higher representation of the Opposition in the Assembly and its enhanced power to block legislations.
